编号：E-2023-10-2
题目：Firm-Level Exposure to Trade War: Measurement and Effects
作者：Ting CHEN, Chong LIU, Mai WO
联系方式：Chong LIU, pkuliuchong@pku.edu.cn
摘要：We develop a text-based measure on Chinese listed firms’ international trade exposure (textual trade exposure or TTE) using 12,325 earnings conference transcripts between 2006 and 2019. We then use the TTE measure to study the impact of the 2018-2019 U.S.-China trade war on firms. Not only does our measure effectively capture the financial impact of the trade war, proven by the fact that around the dates when higher tariffs were announced, firms with one standard deviation higher of TTE experienced 0.20% larger declines in market values, it also has a unique advantage to measure the impact on the domestic market firms who do not directly participate in international trade but affected through the supply chain. We then find a surprised, positive effect on the short-term profits and sales for the high TTE firms after the trade war. Further heterogeneity analysis confirms the positive effect comes solely from the domestic market firms. After the trade war, export-oriented firms turn to domestic suppliers for purchasing material and services, leading to a scale expansion for the latter
关键词：Trade War; Textual Analysis; Trade Exposure; Domestic Firms
