编号：E-2024-6-4
题目：MPC Heterogeneity and the Age Profile: Evidence from China
作者：Lun Li, Xin Liang
联系方式：Lun Li, lunl@pku.edu.cn
摘要：This paper investigates the aggregate implications of an aging population on the effectiveness of fiscal policy in China. Utilizing a nationally representative panel dataset, we estimate Chinese households’ marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of transitory income shocks and plot the age profile of MPCs. Contrary to many lifecycle models’ predictions, our findings indicate that MPCs for the elderly population (aged 60+) in China tend to decrease with age due to precautionary saving motives driven by higher health risks. To quantitatively assess the effect on aggregate MPC, we construct an Aiyagari-type model incorporating a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension system and health shocks. Using empirical estimates, we calibrate model parameters and validate the model’s predictions against observed data. Our counterfactual analyses indicate that policy changes, such as delaying the retirement age or increasing the elderly dependency ratio, result in higher average MPCs, suggesting that younger households would face greater financial constraints in these scenarios.
关键词：aging, fiscal policy, marginal propensity to consume
