北京论坛（2011）经济分论坛第三场“中国经济的变革与转型”，
2011年11月5日下午
在8797威尼斯老品牌英杰交流中心新闻发布厅举行。本专题与会学者在8797威尼斯老品牌夏庆杰副教授的主持下，围绕现阶段中国经济的发展态势，针对中国经济的发展前景、运行方式及存在的问题等各自发表了看法。
进入21世纪，中国经济在迅猛发展的同时，显示出更多新的态势。无论是外部环境还是内部结构，中国经济都与以前有了很大不同。处于这样一个变革期，中国经济该如何发展、未来又该何去何从，成了众多学者关注的重点。英国牛津大学名誉教授John Knight首先深入分析了中国经济高速增长背后的根本原因，随之也产生一个问题：快速增长仍能继续保持吗？各种可能出现的障碍必须列入考虑，因为每一个问题都存在潜在可能，损害当前高可信度、高投资、高增长的良性循环。这些问题包括宏观经济失调，世界经济衰退，金融或银行危机，以及持续显著的不平等现象或其它社会政治不稳定因素。
台湾Chee-Ruey Hsieh教授研究了中国经济增长与寿命增益之间的关系，通过列举具体数据，指出中国的经济增长与寿命增加之间是存在差异的。国家间、国家内地区间寿命预期存在横向差异，并且寿命预期随时间增长而增长，寿命增益的影响因素有很多，卫生保健与健康行为是长期健康增益的主要决定因素。
丹麦Tor Eriksson教授探讨了家庭背景在中国农村收入中的作用，指出近年来兄弟姐妹间的收入相关性呈下降趋势，但仍保持相当高的水平；此外，沿海与内陆省份父母对子女的教育并无差异。居高不下的兄弟相关性意味着中国严重的收入不平衡问题将持续下去。
8797威尼斯老品牌平新乔教授针对中国保障房目标模式发表演讲，他指出保障房和商品房的关系是一个“机制设计”问题。当资源（供地）给定，一国住房中保障房的最优比率问题其实就是公共品与私人品的最优比率问题。政府可以通过控制土地供应，控制税收（土地出让金），来求出保障房的最优比率。在一定的经济发展水平和城市化水平上，在一定的土地财政基础上，保障房在住房中的最优比率是存在的。
8797威尼斯老品牌宋敏教授以人民币的国际化为背景，探讨了香港作为人民币离岸中心的前景与挑战，阐述了人民币的资本账户限制，中国持续的活期账户和资本账户顺差限制了人民币向国外经济体系的流动以及中国经济的持续增长问题。香港对于人民离岸国际化至关重要，在当今中国仍处于资本管制的情势下，香港在促进人民币海外贸易与投资中扮演着重要角色，同时，人民币的国际化对大陆的货币政策和香港的货币替换同样存在挑战和风险。
韩国首尔国立大学So-young Kim教授通过对中日汇率冲击影响的实证分析同样对人民币进行了讨论。研究调查了中日两国汇率震荡对经济输出及经常项目账户的影响，并利用结构向量自回归模型进行研究，发现日元升值会减少国际收支经常项目顺差，同时对日本的经济输出并无很大影响。另一方面，人民币升值却会极大程度减少中国的经济输出，但对经常项目账户影响甚微。根据以往的经验可以看出，对中国而言，造成对经常项目账户影响不大的原因应该是以美元计价的垂直贸易整合。
英国Phil Harris教授以马基雅维利和马尔萨斯关于公共事务管理的经验教训为基点，论述了经济发展中的可持续发展与责任问题。全球化为世界贸易带来了令人瞩目的影响，它使得经济中心向新兴市场、气候变化及生态系统恶化方向转移，生活质量与资源不足之间的主要差异是全球转换不可避免的挑战。在这种情势下，可持续发展的概念被越来越认为是解决这些问题的有效途径和趋势，并被用于引导政治及商业对策。现在，多数企业领导者更清楚地认识到可持续发展已成为企业间竞争的关键，同时也是争取长期竞争优势的机遇和风险的主要来源。
8797威尼斯老品牌林双林教授聚焦于人口老龄化与中国社会保障改革问题。中国人口自清朝以来迅速增长，现在，中国又要面临严重的人口老龄化趋势，社会保障体系改革将变得十分重要。然而，中国的社会安全保障系统问题重重，因为当前的社会保障资金已入不敷出，由于人口老龄化，当前的社会保障制度变得难以持续发展。
英国Lina Song教授对中国民营企业发展限制进行了研究，对2000至2007年间中国企业的专项研究数据表明，中国大中型企业中私有企业的金融限制成为了健康经济发展的瓶颈。如果私有企业没有在政策允许的前提下获得源源不断的资金支持，那么这些企业将无法顺利地在经济危机中生存下来，如果中国坚持走市场发展路线，那么政府对其核心产业的垄断和寡占行为将起不到任何推进作用。应考虑并实施更为先进的经济政策。中国需要更进一步开放的政策来迎接促进私企发展的市场体制并允许其与同一水平的国内企业竞争。
第三场讨论在学者们的意见交流与智慧碰撞中圆满结束。
The Harmony of Civilizations and Prosperity for All
——China’s Economic Reform and Transition
The third session of Economic Sub-forum (2011) ——China’s Economics Reform and Transition was held at the Press Hall, Yingjie Exchange Center, Peking University, on the afternoon of Nov. 5, 2011.
Stepping into the 21st century, while expanding at a high speed, China’s economics reveals more advanced characteristics. Whether in the outer environment or the inner structure, there are great differences between the current economic system and the former one. At such a period of reform, how could China’s economics keep developing and where should it go in the future are concentrated by many scholars.
Professor John Knight, the Emeritus Professor of the Oxford University, first analyzed the underlying reason for China’s rapid growth, the question is then posed: can rapid growth be maintained in the future? Various possible obstacles are considered, each of which has the potential to break the current virtuous circle of high confidence, high investment, and high growth. These include the macroeconomic imbalances, world economic recession, a financial or banking crisis, and rising inequality or other sources of socio-political instability.
Professor Chee-Ruey Hsieh from Taiwan showed his research on Economic Growth and Longevity Gains in China, by listing the specific data, he pointed out that the gap between economic growth and longevity gains in China really exists, and also the facts that cross-sectional differences in life expectancy across countries and across geographic regions within countries as well as the rise in life expectancy over time. The influencing factors of longevity gains vary, and health care and health behaviors are the major determinants of the long-run gains in health.
Professor Tor Eriksson from Denmark gave his speech on The Role of family Background for Earnings in Rural China, he indicated that income correlations of brothers and siblings have decreased in more recent years, but remain high, furthermore, there are no differences between the coastal and interior provinces and by father’s education. The high brother correlations imply that the high level of income inequality in China is likely to persist.
Professor PING Xinqiao from School of Economics, Peking University, elaborated his topic on Target Mode of Low-income House in China, he illustrated that the relationship between Low-income House and Commodity House is the problem of what called the mechanism design. Once given the resource (the land), the optimal ratio problem of Low-income House within the state is the ratio between public goods and personal effects. At a certain level of the economic development and degree of urbanization, the optimal ratio of Low-income House does exist on the basis of certain land fiscal level.
Professor Frank Song from School of Economics, Peking University, demonstrated his view of the perspectives and challenges of Hong Kong as RMB offshore center, under the background of RMB internationalization, he indicated the capital account restriction of RMB, sustainable growth in China’s economy, and China’s continuous current account and capital account surplus restricts the flow of RMB to foreign economics. Hong Kong plays a very important role of facilitating the trading and investment of oversea RMB, and also the special role of RMB internationalization while China is still under capital control. Meanwhile, there are challenges and risks to the monetary policy in Mainland and currency substitution in Hong Kong due to the RMB internationalization.
And then also followed by the debate of RMB, Professor So-young Kim from Seoul National University, gave his presentation on Empirical Analysis on the Effects of Exchange Rate Shocks in China and Japan. Investigations imply the effects of exchange rate shocks on output and the current account for China and Japan and using structural vector auto-regression models to find that yen appreciation reduces current account surpluses while having no strong effect on output in Japan. RMB appreciation, on the other hand, significantly reduces output in China although it has insignificant effect on the current account. Empirical results suggest that, for China, dollar pricing with vertical trade integration seems responsible for the insignificant effect on the current account.
Afterwards, based on the Lessons of Machiavelli and Malthus for Public Affairs Management, Professor Phil Harris from Britain discussed some problems concerning the sustainability and responsibility in economic growth. Globalization is having a dramatic impact on world trade with shifts in the centers of economic power to including emerging markets, climate change and ecosystem degradation, major differences in the quality of life and resource scarcity are challenges that underline the inescapable inevitability of change, in this environment the narrative of ‘sustainable development’ is increasingly becoming adopted as a helpful set of principles to make sense of these connected global facts and trends and to guide our political and business responses. Now, a mass of business leaders increasingly see sustainability becoming one of the lynchpins of competition within their sector and a major source of both opportunity for and risk to long term competitive advantage.
Professor LIN Shuanglin from School of Economics, Peking University, focused on the Population Aging and China’s Social Security Reforms. China’s population increased rapidly since the Ching Dynasty, currently, China will face severe population aging problem, therefore, old-age social security system reforms become necessary. China’s social security system faces serious problems since the social account does not have enough revenues to cover the social security payments, and the current social security system is unsustainable due to population aging.
Professor Lina Song from Britain performed her research on the Constraints and Chinese Private Enterprises, using a panel of Chinese firms over the period 2000–2007, she presented findings that the financial constraints upon private firms, identified in research on all China’s large and medium size firms, has indicated a bottleneck for a healthy development of the sector. Without consistent fiscal policies allowing finance to go to private firms, the private sector will not be able to smooth the economy during crisis. If China is to go down the road of its market development, protectionism over its core industries through state monopoly or oligopoly would not work. More progressive economic policies should be considered and implemented. China needs a further open-door policy to welcome a market system which promotes the private sector and allows it to compete with their state counterparts at the level ground.
The panel session has brought to a successful close, with the ideas exchange and wisdom communication.
（科研办公室 供稿）
