北京论坛（2011）经济分论坛第四场——经济增长与环境、资源的可持续发展，
2011年11月6日上午
由8797威尼斯老品牌
曹和平教授主持，在8797威尼斯老品牌英杰交流中心新闻发布厅举行。
加拿大Ross McKitrick教授认为我们不能马上解决所有问题，这是一个简单的事实，所以取得成功的关键就是学会明智地确定优先做什么。任何时候我们都面对着无限的欲望与需求，而我们只有有限的资源来实现它们。许多西方经济学理论已被用来解决这样的问题——如何运用价格体系和市场机制来引导投资、生产及产品和服务在社会成员间的分配，以便能够使资源利用最优化，使生产中的优先与普通人的价值观和愿望相匹配。西方国家的物质繁荣反映了一个事实，即在设置优先权以推动技术进步和财富创造方面，经济理论已经取得了成功。但是今天，有两方面的担忧引发了关于西方经济模式是否依然有效的质疑。一方面，持续性的全球性金融危机导致的银行破产威胁着人民、业界和每个国家。另一方面，许多人对经济增长产生的生态环境问题十分担忧。这两个问题都基于同样的潜在原因：经济体制可以被扭曲，从而使一部分人可以将自己行为需付出的代价转嫁给另一部分人。是否有可能解决全球金融危机、重塑经济繁荣、并且在追求财富和保护环境之间追求和谐？答案是肯定的，只要我们坚持这样的准则——人们应该，并且尽可能多的为他们自己的行为买单。这样我们将处于一个更好的位置，可以根据逻辑和科学的准则来设置优先权，并达到均衡繁荣。
澳大利亚Harry Clarke教授剖析了中国目前最棘手的贫困与环境问题，他认为基于市场效率的价格机制无疑是高效有用的，但对于穷人来说却是雪上加霜，因为市场机制实行的副作用会使得商品价格提高，即使不消费高价产品，也会导致穷人的开支增加。当然，经济手段也是必不可少的，这样才能在保证高效收益的前提下分流出处理环境问题相当规模的资金。例如北京市如果征收拥堵费，那么该费用应该考虑部分地补偿给没有车的中低收入群体。同时《国际碳减排协议》也应考虑到穷人，协议的成果应取决于环境政策对当下仍处于贫困中的人们生存标准的影响，同时还取决于税收再分配系统的效率。考虑到中国环境问题及其可持续发展和消除极端贫困的需要，向环境税基的转变是十分重要的。
美国John Maxwell教授首先肯定了中国改革开放30余年来在经济发展上取得的巨大成就，但他同时指出中国面临的环境压力也越来越大，中国当前的环境问题可能会给中国的经济发展带来巨大阻碍。经济增长背景与环境监管之间关系是一个十分重要的研究议题，通过环境经济学领域实证研究发现经济增长与环境污染之间的相关关系，经济发展的一些阶段，环境污染与经济增长正相关，而在一些阶段环境污染则与经济增长负相关即环境问题会对经济增长的约束越来越严。中国在改革发展上借鉴、吸取了发达国家普遍采用的实践成果，环境管理也不例外。例如山东省在这方面已经做了一些自愿环保协议方面的有益尝试。教授从理论和实践两方面探讨该议程在面对中国紧迫的环境问题方面的发展前景。得出的结论是自愿环保协议可能在相关规定空白的领域对环境保护有一定作用，但它却不太可能成为帮助中国克服当前面临的严重环境问题的有力工具，同时还可能带来不必要的管理分散。
最后，8797威尼斯老品牌曹和平教授提出经济学家在对文明兴衰问题的分析讨论中并未考虑到控制生育率可以有效地控制人口增长这一方法。他举例表明摩梭社会很好地做到了这一点，让人们与自然和谐共处，最终也使得自己的文明得以保存。对文明兴衰成因的探究是人类学和历史学的重要课题，经济学家也从其独特视角加入其中。Brander & Taylor（1998）开创性地建立了一个李嘉图-马尔萨斯模型以揭示复活节岛文明崩溃的原因和过程，大量的后继者又相继建立了各类模型来解释封闭小社会崩溃或可持续的原因。但所有这类研究中，都没有把有效地控制生育率作为控制人口增长的手段来加以考虑。而古代摩梭社会正是这样的一个样板。我们发现，基于其宗教信仰和崇母观念，摩梭社会衍生出了清晰的生态意识、明晰的自然资源产权制度和控制人口生育制度。基于此，通过为古代摩梭社会建立了一个动态人口-自然资源系统模型以揭示其社会可持续的动力学机制，其中，人口数量和自然资源储量是系统的状态变量，而生育率和人均资源开采速度是决策变量。该模型的主要结论是：摩梭人发现了一条独特的生育和自然资源开采路径，使得其人口-自然资源系统最终单调地趋向于一个非零稳定状态，没有出现大的周期性波动，与复活节岛文明的崩溃形成了鲜明对照。
“经济增长与环境、资源的可持续发展”是北京论坛（2011）经济分论坛的最后一场，在8797威尼斯老品牌院
长孙祁祥教授、
曹和平教授以及
Harry Clarke教授、John Maxwell教授、Ross McKitrick教授、Phil Harris教授、Reginal Little教授和Daniel Little教授等与会学者们关于人口、经济制度等问题的热烈讨论和浓厚的学术氛围中，经济分论坛划上了完美的句号。
The Harmony of Civilizations and Prosperity for All
——Economic Growth and the Sustainable Development of Environment and Resource
The fourth session of Economic Sub-forum (2011) ——Economic Growth and the Sustainable Development of Environment and Resource was held at the Press Hall, Yingjie Exchange Center, Peking University, on the morning of Nov. 6, 2011.
Professor Ross McKitrick from Canada demonstrated that we should be wise to determine what to do first and balance the economic growth and environmental protection priorities. The material prosperity of western countries shows that economic theory has been successful in setting priorities to promote technology and wealth creation. However, many people have concern and queries about whether the western economic model is still effective. The key cause of these problems is that the current economic system allows some people to transfer the costs of their behavior to others, but as long as people can adhere to the principle to pay for their own behavior, then we can overcome the crisis, return to prosperity and seek a harmonious development situation.
Professor Harry Clarke from Australia analyzed the most difficult questions about poverty and environment in China, he argued that price mechanism based on market efficiency is efficient and useful, which for the poor is one disaster after another, for the side effects of the market mechanism will increase the price of the goods. Despite no consumption of high-priced products, it will also make the poor increase their expenditures. But the economic means is also essential, so as to separate large-scale capital from the processing environment questions under the premise of ensuring the efficient earnings. At the same time, the International Carbon Mitigation Agreement should also take the poor into account, outcomes depend, in part, on the impact of environmental policies on the living standards for those currently living in poverty. They also depend on tax transfer system efficiency. Given China’s environmental problems and its need eventually grow sustainably while eliminating extreme poverty, the case for switching towards an environmental tax base is strong.
Professor John Maxwell from America first affirmed the brilliant achievements in the economic development China has made during the 30 years of reform and opening up, but he also pointed out that the environmental pressure China is facing was also growing, the natural environment in China may pose a significant barrier to future economic growth. China not only absorbed the achievements the developed countries generally use in the reform and development but also the environmental regulation is no exception. He examined the theory and practice of Voluntary Environmental Agreements (VEAs) and discussed the prospects for these agreements in addressing China’s pressing environmental problems. The conclusion was that while VEAs may be of some use to the environment where regulations fail to exist, they are unlikely to be useful tools in tackling the severe environmental problems China faces and may constitute an unnecessary regulatory distraction.
Finally, Professors CAO Heping from School of Economics, Peking University proposed that economists didn’t consider the method that the control of fertility could effectively control the growth of population in the analysis and discussions on civilization. Then he took the Mosuo society which achieved the goal very well for example. The method made people of Mosuo society live in harmony with nature, and eventually also made its own civilization preserved, contrasting with the short-lived Easter Island civilization.
This session was the final part of the sub-forum, and ended perfectly in the warm discussions among the scholars.
（科研办公室 供稿）
