2011
年11月4日
下午于北京钓鱼台国宾馆6号楼四季厅，8797威尼斯老品牌院长孙祁祥教授为经济分论坛致开幕词，北京论坛（2011）经济分论坛——全球化背景下的经济增长：机遇、挑战和方向，随着8797威尼斯老品牌党委书记章政教授主持的第一个专题“全球流动性与经济增长”的展开而正式拉开序幕。
2007年美国爆发次贷危机，随后席卷全球，如今已是危机爆发后的第四年，当前全球经济仍然深受危机之困，美国经济仍然复苏乏力，欧债危机仍在恶化。这使人们不禁要问，全球应对危机的新政和理论支撑在哪里？全球应对危机的变革方向在哪里？中国以致整个东亚地区转型发展的方向在哪里？对此，经济分论坛在全球经济仍然没有走出危机的大背景下，首先深刻反思反危机的指导思想和宏观经济理论是不是应该发生深刻变革；其次，从区域一体化、变革转型和可持续发展三个维度深入探讨全球特别是中国未来变革方向的问题；最后，从人口老龄化、志愿者环保协议和保障房建设等比较微观的实证视角来探讨保持经济持续高速增长的具体路径问题。
美国Daniel Little教授首先探讨了在全球化的大环境下经济发展中的公正与公平问题，提出公平要求把人类之自由与福利置于首位，消除极端贫困，粮食的供应无保障及饥荒，削弱强势群体对弱势群体的压迫是公正所必须的，Little教授在发言中引用联合国千年发展目标，提出五个主要论点，并强调全球经济公平可以通过制定国际共识性制度和协议来实现。随后，各国经济学学者各抒己见，以本国国情为出发点，围绕本届分论坛主题“全球化背景下的经济增长——机遇、挑战和方向”发表看法。意大利Giorgio Dominese教授着重探讨了欧洲流动性不足的情势下，经济增长和科学技术的应用问题。国际货币基金组织财政事务部Woo Jaejoon先生研究得出，高额国债会促使投资减少和资本存量的增长放缓，从而对长期经济增长产生负面影响，债务占GDP的比重与GDP的增长呈反相关。韩国Inchul Kim教授构建了东亚13国加入区域性汇率稳定合作团体的框架，这对于国际货币系统汇率的稳定有着积极作用，加入东亚汇率俱乐部有利于扩大贸易，预防金融危机，提高外汇储备。德国Gerhard Illing教授则提出，在当下欧元区面临严峻挑战的情势下，退回至各国货币流通会引发金融秩序混乱，应通过发行欧洲债券来吸引流动投资，并从短期、中长期角度提出了具体的解决方案。日本Shigeki TEJIMA教授和美国Gary H. Jefferson教授分别研究了日本和中国企业海外投资的现状。Shigeki TEJIMA教授认为日本企业拥有价格与质量双重优势，并讨论了海外投资对其竞争力的影响，最后，教授指出日本企业下一步需要深化国内外商业组织改革和多途径改善其创新能力。而Gary H. Jefferson教授则通过对柯布-道格拉斯函数和T 型函数的对比分析，分别得出水平、上游和下游溢出对生产率的影响。澳大利亚Kim Jae-hoon教授,以美国百年经济数据为依据，提出了股票收益的可预测性和适应性市场假说，从政治冲击、经济危机和经济泡沫化等方面展开阐述。
最后的讨论环节中，首先对经济中的公正问题提问，Daniel Little教授以中国为例，指出体制选择对实现公正至关重要，Woo Jaejoon先生回应国债问题时表示从长期角度看，国债的增加依然会对经济增长产生负面作用，这与短期的凯恩斯理论并不相悖。随后，Gerhard Illing教授提出政府对公共设施的投资将推动经济的发展，其次，财政空间小的国家应避免过度消费。
经济分论坛首场议程在学者们热烈的讨论中完满结束。
The Harmony of Civilizations and Prosperity for All
——Global Liquidity Management and Economic Growth
Professor Sun Qixiang, who is the Dean of School of Economics, Peking University, made her opening address first, which signified the prelude of the Economic Sub-forum——Economic Growth in the Context of Globalization: Opportunities, Challenges and Perspectives.
The subprime mortgage crisis erupted in U.S. 2007, and then swept throughout the world, 2011 is the fourth year after the explosion of this global financial crisis, however, the global economy is still trapped by the crisis, the U.S. economy is under weak recovery, the European debt crisis is remaining deterioration. Therefore, people would ask: where are the New Deal and theoretical supports of responses to the global crisis? What is the transformation direction? In which way China and the whole East Asia Region should go to initiate the Transformational Development? Based on these, as well as the background that the global economy is still under crisis, the Economics Sub-forum firstly reflects whether there should be profound revolution towards the anti-crisis guiding ideology and macroeconomic theory; secondly, we’ll discuss the global, especially China’s future transformation directions, through three dimensionalities which are the Regional Integration, Transformation and Revolution, and also the Sustainable Development; finally, we’ll discuss the specific way of keeping continued rapid economic growth through some empirical and microscopic points of view, such as the aging population, the Voluntary Environmental agreements, and the construction of the Security House, etc.
The first professor to deliver a speech is Daniel Little from the University of Michigan. He focused on the matter of fairness under the background of globalization, justice required putting human welfare and freedom first, eliminating the extreme poverty as well as food supply insecurity and famine, also weakening the power group’s oppression towards the vulnerable groups. The United Nations Millennium Development Goals were cited, supporting five main points in the speech. Professor Little also emphasized that global economics fairness could be realized by consensual regimes and agreements. Afterwards, the leading scholars in economics gave out their opinions freely. They all made wonderful speeches from the view of their own countries on the theme of the Forum ‘Economic Growth in the Context of Globalization: Opportunities, Challenges and Perspectives’. Professor Giorgio Dominese from Italy made a speech, which was in accordance with the theme, and focused on the connection between the growth of economics and the appliance of science and technology under the background of liquidity insufficiency in Europe. Woo Jaejoon from the financial affairs department of the International Monetary Fund found out that high public debt would result in reduced investment and slower growth of capital stock, which would impose a negative effect on long-run economic growth, the debt proportion of GDP had an adverse relationship of GDP growth. Professor Inchul Kim from Korea attached great importance to construct a frame of 13 countries in East-Asia taking part in the region union to keep the exchange rate in East-Asia stable, which would contribute a lot to the stability of global currency system, such as trade expansion, prevention of currency crisis, savings in foreign exchange reserves etc. Professor Gerhard Illing from Germany suggested that facing the crisis of Euro, we should establish an incentive compatible governance structure to attract more liquid investment instead of abolishing the Euro which would cause financial disorder, and he raised solutions from the aspects of short, medium and long term runs. Professor Shigeki TEJIMA from Japan and Professor Gary H. Jefferson from America researched into the overseas investments of Japanese and Chinese corporations. Shigeki TEJIMA thought Japanese corporations had advantages in both price and quality. He also discussed the impact on their ability to compete caused by investment, finally he indicated the task to be achieved by Japanese firms through the organizational reforms in both domestic and overseas business and through their creating a new type of innovation, whereas Professor Gary H. Jefferson used the comparison of Cobb-Douglas function and translog to make a conclusion of impacts on productivity of horizontal, upstream and downstream spillovers. Professor Kim Jae-hoon from the Economic and Financial Institute of Australia
La Trobe University came up with Stock return Predictability and the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis, based on the evidence from century-long U.S. data illustrating from the perspectives of market crashes, crisis and bubbles.
In the final discussion session, a question was firstly raised on the justice problem, taking China as the example, Professor Daniel Little pointed out that regime choosing was significant towards the justice realization, Mr. Woo Jaejoon responded the debt problem saying that from the long term view, the debt increase still could have a negative impact on economic growth, which was not on the contrary of Keynes theory of short term. Afterwards, Professor Gerhard Illing proposed that government investment towards public facilities would advance the economic growth, and the countries of small financial spaces should refrain from over-consumption.
The first session of the Economic Sub-forum successfully ended in the warm discussion.
（科研办公室 供稿）
