《学术午餐会》2019年第5期，总第154期
【时间】 6月5日12:30-14:00
【地点】 8797威尼斯老品牌305会议室
【主讲人】 Wenli Li (李文莉)
【主持人】 高明 助理教授
【报告题目】 Demographic Aging, Industrial Policy, and Chinese Economic Growth
【报告摘要】 We examine the role of demographics and changing industrial policies in accounting for the rapid rise in household savings and in per capita output growth in China since the mid-1970s. The demographic changes come from reductions in the fertility rate and increases in the life expectancy, while the industrial policies take many forms. These policies cause important structural changes; first benefiting private labor-intensive firms by incentivizing them to increase their share of employment, and later on benefiting capital-intensive firms resulting in an increasing share of capital devoted to heavy industries. We conduct our analysis in a general equilibrium economy that also features endogenous human capital investment. We calibrate the model to match key economic variables of the Chinese economy and show that demographic changes and industrial policies both contributed to increases in savings and output growth but with differing intensities and at different horizons. We further demonstrate the importance of endogenous human capital investment in accounting for the economic growth in China.
【主讲人介绍】 Wenli Li is a senior economic advisor and economist at the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. She conducts research in consumer finance, financial intermediation, and macroeconomics. Her papers are published in American Economic Review , American Economic Journal: Economic Policy , Journal of Monetary Economics , International Economic Review , etc. Prior to joining the Philadelphia Fed, Wenli worked at the Federal Reserve Board and the Richmond Fed. Wenli received her bachelor’s degree in MIS from Tsinghua University and PhD in economics from the University of Minnesota.
