【演讲者】Pierre van der Eng
【时间】10月21日（周五）中午12:30-2:00
【地点】经院203教室
【演讲者介绍】：Pierre van der Eng is an Associate Professor in International Business, Research School of Management, College of Business and Economics, Australian National University. Prof. Pierre van der Eng received his Ph.D from University of Groningen in 1993. He is an economist and historian with academic interests in the overlapping areas of business history and international business, as well as economic history and development economics. His current research interest focus on the explanation of long-term economic growth and standards of living in Indonesia, particularly the role of institutions in the development of product and factor markets. His research work has been published in major academic journals including Journal of Public Economics, Explorations in Economic History. For more information, please check his website:
http://www.cbe.anu.edu.au/staff/staff/people/?profile=Pierre-van der Eng
Your participation is warmly welcomed!
题目：When Did Indonesia De-Industrialise? Long-Term Trends in Industrialisation, 1870-2015
摘要：This paper tests the thesis that colonised, less-developed countries in Asia experienced de-industrialisation as their metropoles expected them to specialise production in primary commodities for export and in turn import manufactured goods. This thesis was recently revived by Jeffrey Williamson, albeit that he pointed to long-term changes in the terms-of-trade during the long 19th century as the main cause of the de-industrialisation of commodity-exporting less-developed countries.
The paper tests the thesis on the basis of (a) new long-term annual estimates of value added in manufacturing industry for 1870-1975, linked to national accounts data for 1975-2015, and (b) new estimates of long-term changes in the barter terms-of-trade and the real exchange rate. It defines de-industrialisation as periods of sustained decrease of the share of manufacturing value added in GDP.
The paper finds just three episodes of de-industrialisation, the economic crisis 1929-1935, the Japanese occupation and war of independence 1942-47, and the 2004-2015 commodity boom. During 1870-1929, value added in manufacturing grew on average by 4% per year, which compares to 2% in India and 6% in Japan. Export production of primary commodities and unfettered trade limited the growth of manufacturing industry. The year-to-year volatility in the terms-of-trade and the real exchange rate worked against the development of trade-exposed manufacturing industry, except for commodity processing for export and production for expanding domestic markets with natural protection and/or to suit local consumer preferences.
The global crisis of the early 1930s was the start of Indonesia’s pursuit of import-substituting industrialisation (ISI). The oil boom of 1967-1985 allowed increasing public investment in ISI by state-owned enterprises, and state-directed lending by state-owned banks to private enterprise. The end of the oil boom in 1985 caused Indonesia to start export-oriented industrialisation (EOI) by lowering trade barriers and encouraging inward FDI. The China-led commodity boom and infrastructure limitations have since the mid-2000s hampered Indonesia’s EOI.
The paper finds no evidence of sustained de-industrialisation in Indonesia in the long-run. It confirms Williamson’s conclusion that improvements in the terms-of-trade impeded industrial development in Indonesia. But the paper adds that not just the trend, but also the short-term volatility of the terms-of-trade and the real exchange rate caused uncertainty for manufacturers, particularly during 1870-1929, when Indonesian producers did not have trade protection.
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