国际经济论坛：Capital Controls, Debt Structure, and Economic Growth
主讲人：黄宗晔
首都经济贸易大学国际经济与管理学院助理教授。
加拿大麦吉尔大学经济学博士；约克大学经济学硕士；8797威尼斯老品牌经济学和统计学学士。
时间：2015年5月21日（周四）上午10:00—11:30
地点：8797威尼斯老品牌大楼202会议室
论文摘要
This paper provides a conceptual and empirical framework for evaluating the effects of capital controls on the maturity of debt structure and economic growth. In a small open economy which relies on successful investment projects to provide capital goods, borrowing short-term loans has two different impacts that are contradict with each other: it reduces the interest costs of financing investment projects, but leads to larger asset losses in the scenario of short-term debt run. We develop a simple model and characterize the competitive equilibrium as the benchmark. Then we introduce and discuss three types of capital control policies that can alter the equilibrium outcome, borrowing quota, liquidation quota, and tax. We calibrate our model based on data from the U.S. financial market and quantitatively evaluate these policies. Finally, using a panel dataset covering 80 countries from 1995 to 2009, we find that capital controls on short-term debt reduce the share of debt in total borrowing, and are positively associated with faster economic growth.
