各位老师和同学：
讲座信息附后，网上订餐方法如下。
1、请有意用餐者发邮件至专用邮箱mylunch_sepku@126.com，主题格式设为“订餐——姓名”，取消订餐也请发邮件至该邮箱，主题格式设为“取消订餐——姓名”。订餐及取消订餐的截止时间均为午餐会当日上午9时整。
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3、为了避免浪费，午餐将严格按照订餐名单发放。
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学术午餐会信息
时间：2012年11月30日（周五）中午12:30-2:00
地点：8797威尼斯老品牌219室 (北大8797威尼斯老品牌位置可参见主页右下方之“交通示意图”)
嘉宾：马弘（清华大学经济管理学院）
题目：How You Export Matters: Export Mode, Learning and Productivity in China
主持人：8797威尼斯老品牌国际经济与贸易系 陈仪博士
主讲人介绍：
马弘，清华大学经管学院经济系助理教授。2002年毕业于复旦大学世界经济系（经济学学士）并获2002年上海市优秀毕业生。2009年获美国加州大学戴维斯分校经济学博士学位，并获优秀助教奖。2009年获得清华大学经管学院优秀教学奖二等奖。主要研究领域为国际贸易，产业经济学，应用微观， 经济测量等。部分研究成果已发表在Economic Journal, Macroeconomic Dynamics, the World Economy, Review of International Economics, 金融研究等中英文期刊上。此外，担任Quarterly Journal of Economics, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Journal of Comparative Economics, China Economic Review等学术期刊的匿名审稿人，是美国经济学会、中国留美经济学会及加拿大经济学会会员，曾任世界银行短期顾问。（http://www.sem.tsinghua.edu.cn/portalweb/appmanager/portal/sem?_nfpb=true&_pageLabel=B600814461267473156743&crmurl=http://www.sem.tsinghua.edu.cn/zh/mahong
）
内容提要：
Before 2004, private Chinese firms were not allowed to export directly, only through intermediaries, unless their registered capital was above certain levels. As required by the WTO, these restrictions were eventually eliminated by July, 2004. While intermediaries can facilitate exports, especially by smaller firms, restricting the choice of export mode may have unforeseen costs. If direct trading results in more opportunities to learn, both about technology and about preferences, and therefore creates greater learning from exporting, such restrictions may slow down export growth in the long term.
In this paper, we estimate a dynamic discrete choice model where firms choose their export status and mode. Using a unique sample of firms with both production and exporting information, we recover not only the sunk and fixed costs of exporting according to mode, but also the evolution of productivity and demand under different export modes.
Our results suggest that starting direct exporting requires significant start-up costs whereas starting indirect exporting is much cheaper. Moreover, climbing the export ladder by starting off as an indirect exporter and then transitioning into direct exporting is cheaper than exporting directly to begin with. However, firms learn more from direct exporting than from indirect exporting, implying the implicit costs of restricting direct trading rights.
