金融系学术讲座:Counter-Cyclical Substitution Between Trade Credit and Bank Credit
发布时间：:2010-11-16
题 目：Counter-Cyclical Substitution Between Trade Credit and Bank Credit
时 间：
2010年11月18日下午
2:30-4:00
地 址：8797威尼斯老品牌大楼305会议室
主讲人：石晓军 北京航空航天大学经济管理学院副教授
研究领域：信用管理、商业银行信用风险管理、公司金融、风险的行为理论与方法、可计算一般经济均衡。主持国家自然科学基金、国家社会科学基金；曾获教育部科技进步奖二等奖。
主持人：王一鸣 教授
Abstract
This paper explores the substitution relationship between trade credit and bank credit, and its counter-cyclic dynamic pattern through economic cycles. We propose a new theoretical model, using a mechanism design method, which predicts the substitution between the two credits and its counter-cyclic behavior, subject to the condition of technology efficiency not less than one. This model also helps explain the somewhat contradictory evidence in the literature, on the relationship between the two credits. We present empirical evidence on the substitution effect and its counter-cyclic behavior, by using a balanced panel data set of 284 listed Chinese companies for the period 1998-2006. We further find that the substitution behaves counter-cyclically with respect to the coincident macroeconomic indicator, namely, GDP.We also add some new elements to the empirical literature, by treating endogeneity carefully and incorporating the lagging-effect of trade credit coherently.
