北大经院工作坊第265场
Buying Data from Consumers: The Impact of Monitoring Programs in U.S. Auto Insurance
风险、保险与不确定性经济学工作坊
主讲人：
靳毅洲（Gilbert Center Postdoc Fellow at UC Berkeley）
主持老师：
（北大经院）贾若
（清华经管）刘晨源
（人大财金）陈泽
参与老师：
（北大经院）郑伟
（清华经管）陈秉正
（人大财金）魏丽 等
时间：
2021年5月13日（周四）
9：00-10：30
形式：
Zoom Meeting
会议号: 397 230 9839
密码: 983159
主讲人简介：
Yizhou Jin is a Gilbert Center Postdoc Fellow at UC Berkeley. He studies how data and AI technologies create and distribute economic value in imperfect markets, focusing on applications in insurance and digital platforms. He is also a Data Science Lead at Twitter and he will be an assistant professor in economics and strategy at the University of Toronto starting 2022. He has a PhD in Business Economics from Harvard.
摘要：
We study the impact of a voluntary monitoring program by a major U.S. auto insurer, in which drivers are tracked for a short period of time in exchange for potential discounts on future premiums. We acquire a detailed proprietary dataset from the insurer and match it with competitor price menus. Our analysis has two steps. First, we quantify the degree to which monitoring incentivizes safer driving and allows more accurate risk-based pricing. Second, we model the demand and supply forces that determine the amount of information revealed in equilibrium. Structural demand parameters are estimated to capture correlations among consumers' monitoring and insurance choices as well as the cost to insure them. A dynamic pricing model makes the firm's information on driver risk endogenous to prices. We can then jointly characterize information and market structures in counterfactual equilibria. Overall, we find large profit and welfare gains from introducing monitoring. Safer drivers self-select into monitoring, with those who opt-in becoming 30% safer when monitored. Accounting for the resource costs of monitoring and price competition, a data-sharing mandate would have reduced short-term profit and welfare.
北大经院工作坊第266场
Local Specialization and Growth: The Italian Land Reform
经济史工作坊
主讲人：
Matteo Magnaricotte（Northwestern University）
主持老师：
（北大经院）赵一泠
参与老师：
（北大经院）郝煜、管汉辉、周建波
（北大光华）颜色
（北大国发院）席天扬、于航
时间：
2021年5月13日（周四）
10：30-12：00
形式：
Zoom Meeting
会议号: 956 4103 0279
主讲人简介：
Matteo Magnaricotte is a PhD student at Northwestern University working on topics of development economics. He will be on the job market next year.
摘要：
We provide evidence that local specialization in the agricultural sector has adverse effects on economic growth in the long run. We base our analysis on a simple theoretical framework where reduced growth is the outcome of employing a higher share of people in agriculture than in manufacturing, because of learning-by-doing effects. We test these predictions on Italian municipalities, where we exploit the land reform of 1950 as an exogenous source of variation in specialization. The land redistribution allows us to identify the causal effect of changes in agricultural employment shares in the 1950s on economic development in the following decades. We find that treated municipalities specialized more in agriculture following the reform compared to non-treated municipalities, and that this lead to lower growth in the 1970s and 1980s.
北大经院工作坊第267场
间接显示偏好理论
微观理论经济学工作坊
主讲人：
虎高计（上海财经大学副教授）
主持老师：
（北大经院）吴泽南、石凡奇
（北大国发院）胡岠
参与老师：
（北大经院）胡涛、吴泽南、石凡奇
（北大国发院）汪浩、胡岠
作者：
Gaoji Hu, Jiangtao Li, John K.-H. Quah and Rui Tang
时间：
2021年5月13日（周四）
10:30-12:00
地点：
8797威尼斯老品牌305会议室
主讲人简介：
Gaoji Hu received his PhD in Economics from National University of Singapore in 2017. He is currently an Associate Professor in the School of Economics at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. Dr Hu’s research interests include matching/market design, mechanism design, and revealed preference analysis. His work has been published in Theoretical Economics and Games and Economic Behavior.
摘要：
A preference over menus is said to be an indirect preference if it is induced by a preference over the objects that make up those menus, i.e., a menu A is ranked over B whenever A contains an object that is preferred to every object in B. The basic question we address in this paper is the following: suppose an observer has partial information of an agent's ranking over certain menus; what necessary and sufficient conditions on those rankings guarantee the existence ofa preference over objects that induces the observed menu rankings? Our basic result has a wide variety of applications. (1) It gives a characterization of rankingsover prices that could be extended to a bona fide indirect utility function. (2) It leads to a generalization of Afriat's (1967) theorem that allows for imperfectly observed choices. (3) It could be used to characterize observations that are consistent with a multiple preferences model. (4) It leads to a characterization of a model of choice generated by minimax regret.
北大经院工作坊第268场
COVID-19在中国的模糊污染效应
中国的碳交易试点项目与当地空气质量
环境、能源与气候经济学工作坊
主讲人：
张爽（中欧国际工商学院经济学教授）
主持老师：
（北大国发院）邢剑炜
参与老师：
（北大国发院）徐晋涛、王敏、邢剑炜、易媛媛
（北大经院）张博、李虹、季曦、
（北大现代农学院）侯玲玲、刘承芳
题目：
一、Ambiguous Pollution Response to COVID-19 in China（COVID-19在中国的模糊污染效应）
二、Carbon-Trading Pilot Programs in China and Local Air Quality（中国的碳交易试点项目与当地空气质量）
时间：
2021年5月13日（周四）
12：00-14：00
地点：
国家发展研究院万众楼一楼大教室
主讲人简介：
张爽，中欧国际工商学院经济学教授。在加入中欧之前，她任教于美国科罗拉多大学博尔德分校经济系并获终身教职。她还曾在斯坦福大学的斯坦福经济政策研究所担任博士后。她毕业于康奈尔大学并获得经济学博士学位，在复旦大学获得经济学硕士学位。张教授的研究兴趣主要集中在能源与环境经济学、健康经济学、以及中国经济。她的论文多次发表于国际顶级学术期刊，包括政治经济学期刊 (Journal of Political Economy), 发展经济学期刊 (Journal of Development Economics), 美国国家科学院院刊 (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences) 等。张教授的研究成果广为权威媒体所报道，包括华尔街日报、经济学人，福布斯、彭博社等。张教授还曾连续四年担任美国国家科学基金重大研究项目的主要负责人。
摘要一：
Reductions in ambient pollution have been taken as an indisputable "silver lining" to the COVID-19 Pandemic. Indeed, worldwide economic contraction induced by COVID-19 lockdowns should generate global air quality improvements ceteris paribus, including to China's notoriously-poor air quality. We analyze China's official pollution monitor data and account for the large, recurrent improvement in air quality following Lunar New Year (LNY), which essentially coincided with lock-downs in 2020. With the important exception of NO2, China's air quality improvements in 2020 are smaller than we should expect near the pandemic's epicenter: Hubei province. Compared with LNY improvements experienced in 2018 and 2019 in Hubei, we see smaller improvements in SO2 while ozone concentrations increased in both relative and absolute terms (roughly doubling). Similar patterns are found for the six provinces neighboring Hubei. We conclude that COVID-19 had ambiguous impacts on China's pollution, with evidence of relative deterioration in air quality near the Pandemic's epicenter.
摘要二：
China emits twice as much CO2 as the United States. Launched in seven regions in 2013-2014, China’s pilot carbon trading programs cover roughly 7% of China’s CO2 emissions. These market-based policies offer the best existing evidence as to whether the national carbon trading program starting in 2021 will curb emissions. Here, we analyze changes in air quality using visibility measures from weather stations. We find the pilot programs improved local air quality and this was likely a co-benefit of reduced carbon emissions. However, these improvements were modest and there is some evidence of pollution leakage to the non-pilot regions.
北大经院工作坊第269场
欧元区病与中国经济：若干问题的空间政治经济学
国际经济学与实证产业组织工作坊
主讲人：
陆铭（上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院）
主持老师：
（北大经院）杨汝岱
参与老师：
（北大经院）田巍、刘政文、莫家伟
（北大新结构）王歆、徐铭梽
时间：
2021年5月13日（周四）
15：00-16：30
地点：
8797威尼斯老品牌305会议室
主讲人简介：
陆铭，上海交通大学安泰经济管理学院特聘教授、教育部长江学者、中国发展研究院执行院长、中国城市治理研究院研究员、上海国际金融与经济研究院研究员。曾作为富布莱特学者工作于美国哈佛大学和国家经济研究局（NBER），作为兼职（客座）研究员受聘于复旦大学、新加坡管理大学、东北财经大学等国内外高校。曾担任世界银行和亚洲开发银行咨询专家。学术畅销书《大国大城》的作者。担任《经济学（季刊）》副主编，Asian Economic Papers (MIT出版社)编辑和《世界经济》等期刊编委。研究领域为中国经济、城乡和区域经济发展、劳动经济学。近年来的研究主要是对城市和区域发展政策进行评估，并为城市可持续发展，促进国内市场一体化和经济持续增长提供来自空间政治经济学的战略思考。
北大经院工作坊第270场
美国自然利率的长期驱动因素
宏观经济学工作坊
主讲人：
Josef Platzer（IMF，国际货币基金）
主持老师：
李博（北大经院）
参与老师：
（北大国发院）赵波、 鄢萍、余昌华、胡佳胤、李明浩
（北大经院） 陈仪、韩晗、李博、王熙
时间：
2021年5月14日（周五）
10:00-11:30
形式：
腾讯会议链接：
https://meeting.tencent.com/s/wq0PA65fTNYz
会议 ID：793 395 616
主讲人简介：
Josef Platzer拥有维也纳大学的经济学学士学位和硕士学位。分别于2016年和2021年获得布朗大学的硕士学位和博士学位。他将在2021年秋季加入国际货币基金组织。他的研究探索了长期的宏观经济趋势，例如利率下降，劳动份额下降以及货币政策处于有效的下限。
摘要：
We develop a heterogeneous agent, overlapping generations model with non-homothetic preferences that nests several explanations for the decline in the natural rate of interest (Rn) suggested in the literature: demographic change, a slowdown in productivity growth, a rise in income inequality, and public policy. We add out-of-pocket health expenditures to the analysis. The model can account for a 2.2 percentage point (pp) decline in Rn between 1975 and 2015, within the range of empirical estimates. Rising income inequality is an important driver (-0.70 pp), and together with demographic change (-0.71 pp) and the slowdown in productivity growth (-1.0 pp) explains most of the decline. Growing public debt is the major counteracting force (+0.31 pp). Permanent income inequality is of greater importance than inequality due to uninsurable income risk, and matching the degree of non-homotheticity in consumption and savings behavior to empirical estimates is essential for this result. We find a moderate role for out-of-pocket health expenditures (-0.14 pp). We predict that Rn reaches a low of 0.38% by 2030, after which a slow reversal begins. The natural rate stabilizes at 1% over the long run, a low level when compared to the postwar path of Rn implied by the model. This remains true even if we take into account soaring public debt levels due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Fiscal policy can have considerableimpact on the level of Rn, and we propose to treat the level of the natural rate as a public policy choice.
北大经院工作坊第271场
非参样本分割下的阈值回归
计量、金融和大数据分析工作坊
主讲人：
王宇龙（雪城大学助理教授）
主持老师：
王熙（北大经院）
参与老师：
（北大经院）王一鸣、刘蕴霆
（北大国发院）沈艳、黄卓、孙振庭、张俊妮
（北大新结构）胡博
时间：
2021年5月14日（周五）
10:00-11:30
形式：
线上：
腾讯会议链接：
https://meeting.tencent.com/s/QXkYOxdl6hXq
会议 ID：624 697 960
线下：
8797威尼斯老品牌107会议室
主讲人简介：
Yulong Wang is an Assistant Professor of Economics in the Maxwell School and a Senior Research Associate in the Center for Policy Research. Before joining Syracuse University, Wang earned a B.A. from Tsinghua University and Ph.D. in economics from Princeton University. His current research focuses on designing new econometric tools in the non-standard instances when the classic asymptotically Gaussian framework fails to provide good performance. These tools are strongly motivated by empirical applications. Leading examples include estimating the location of the tipping point in social segregation, determining metropolitan areas based on nighttime light intensity, inference about winner’s properties in auctions, and studying the cost of extreme events such as natural disasters.
学术午餐会第167期
Corporate Social Responsibility in Supply Chain: Green or Greenwashing?
主讲人：
吴靖（香港中文大学商学院决策科学与管理经济学系助理教授）
主持老师：
高明（北大经院副教授）
时间：
2021年5月14日（周五）
12:30-14:00
地点：
8797威尼斯老品牌107会议室
主讲人简介：
吴靖博士是香港中文大学商学院决策科学与管理经济学系助理教授、香港深圳联合金融研究中心研究员。他本科毕业于清华大学，于芝加哥大学布斯商学院获得MBA和博士学位。他的研究领域是运营与财务、全球供应链、金融科技与商业大数据应用，研究论文发表在Management Science、M&SOM等UTD期刊，观点文章发表在MIT Sloan Management Review、The Economist、Forbes等杂志。
摘要：
Perception regarding a focal firm’s corporate social responsibility (CSR) depends not only on itself but also on its known suppliers. This paper provides the first empirical evidence linking CSR and supply chain information disclosure together. Specifically, it uncovers robust evidence that firms greenwash their CSR image via voluntarily disclosing environmentally responsible suppliers while concealing “bad” ones. Exogenous variations in abnormal temperatures around the world drive variations in the selective disclosure of “good” suppliers, supporting a causal interpretation of our finding. Supply chain greenwashing is more prevalent for firms who face higher competition, care more about their brand awareness, and for firms that are more profit-driven and held more by institutional investors. The greenwashing behavior mitigates after implementing mandatory CSR disclosure policies. Finally, firms who greenwash supply chains observe increase in sales, but only for the short-term.
