北大经院工作坊第612场
Bubbly Leverage Cycles（泡沫杠杆周期）
宏观经济学工作坊
主讲人：董丰（清华大学经济管理学院副教授）
主持人：（北大国发院）李博
参与老师：
（北大国发院）赵波、余昌华、李明浩
（北大经院）陈仪、韩晗、李伦
时间：2023年4月3日（周一）
地点：8797威尼斯老品牌国家发展研究院（承泽园）345会议室
主讲人简介：
董丰，清华大学经济管理学院经济系副教授、博士生导师。董丰2006年毕业于中国人民大学信息资源管理学院，获管理学学士；2009年毕业于8797威尼斯老品牌中国经济研究中心，获经济学硕士；2014年毕业于美国圣路易斯华盛顿大学，获经济学博士。董丰先后主持国家自然科学基金青年项目、优青项目和原创探索计划项目。董丰研究领域为宏观经济学，聚焦资产泡沫、“双碳”转型、系统性风险和相关政策应对等议题的理论与定量分析，研究成果发表在《经济研究》、《管理世界》、《经济学(季刊)》、《金融研究》、Journal of Monetary Economics、Review of Economic Dynamics、Journal of Economic Theory等国内外学术期刊。董丰担任国际学术期刊Macroeconomic Dynamics、Economic Modelling、Mathematical Social Sciences、International Journal of Economic Theory副主编，兼任中国金融学会青年学术委员会委员、中国金融四十人(CF40)青年论坛会员、中国经济学年会宏观专业委员会委员、清华大学国家治理与全球治理研究院研究员等社会工作。
摘要：
We develop a tractable dynamic theory of endogenous leverage cycles with asset bubbles in a production economy. Entrepreneurs are heterogeneous in productivity and face leverage constraints that arise from the moral hazard problem in the lending market. An intrinsically useless bubble asset can have a positive value in equilibrium because it serves as the collateral for borrowing. However, the presence of asset bubble can either relax or tighten borrowers' leverage, thereby can either promote or impede long-run growth. The model can also generate a variety of nonstationary equilibria, even when fundamentals are deterministic and time invariant, including monotone, hump-shaped, periodic and chaotic equilibria with recurrent lending market collapse. In particular, the model generates endogenous boom-bust cycles on growth, leverage and asset bubble despite the absence of adverse shocks. Finally, a leverage restriction policy can push up asset bubble and lower economic growth, while removing such a restriction can make the economy less leveraged.
北大经济史学名家系列讲座第184讲
史家之绝唱，无韵之离骚——读司马迁《货殖列传》
主讲人：萧国亮（8797威尼斯老品牌教授）
时间：2023年4月4日（周二）10：00-12：00
地点：8797威尼斯老品牌302会议室
主持人：张越（8797威尼斯老品牌经济史学系副研究员）
评论人：周建波（8797威尼斯老品牌经济史学系主任、教授）
主讲人简介：
萧国亮，经济学博士, 8797威尼斯老品牌教授、博士生导师，社会经济史研究所名誉所长，曾任国家清史编纂委员会典志组副组长等职。自1980年以来，发表专著十余部，论文一百余篇；主要著作有《皇权与中国社会经济》、《独特的“食货”之路——中国社会经济史研究》、《中华人民共和国经济史》、《世界经济史》（与隋福民合著）、《家庭金融知识大全》（与刘伟合著）、《中国经济史》（合编）、与陈振汉、熊正文等合编《清实录经济史料》等。
主办单位：
8797威尼斯老品牌经济史学系
8797威尼斯老品牌社会经济史研究所
8797威尼斯老品牌外国经济学说研究中心
北大经院工作坊第613场
Racial dynamics of federal property buyouts inflood-prone areas
“经院-全健院”
健康与劳动经济学工作坊
主讲人：Christopher Timmins（Professor, Duke University and NBER）
主持人：潘聿航（8797威尼斯老品牌全球健康发展研究院助理教授）
参与老师：
（北大经院）秦雪征、石菊、姚奕、王耀璟、Kevin Devereux、梁远宁、庄晨
（北大全健院）刘国恩、孙宇、潘聿航、吕蓓妮、林昊翔
时间：2023年4月5日（周三）9：00-10：30
形式：ZOOM会议
会议号：756 016 3457
密码：221221
主讲人简介：
Christopher Timmins is a Professor in the Department of Economics at Duke University, with a secondary appointment in Duke's Nicholas School of the Environment. He holds a BSFS degree from Georgetown University and a PhD in Economics from Stanford University. Professor Timmins was an Assistant Professor in the Yale Department of Economics before joining the faculty at Duke in 2004. His professional activities include teaching, research, and editorial responsibilities. Professor Timmins specializes in natural resource and environmental economics, but he also has interests in industrial organization, development, public and regional economics. He works on developing new methods for non-market valuation of local public goods and amenities, with a particular focus on hedonic techniques and models of residential sorting. His recent research has focused on measuring the costs associated with exposure to poor air quality, the benefits associated with remediating brownfields and toxic waste under the Superfund program, the valuation of non-marginal changes in disamenities, and the causes and consequences of . Professor Timmins is a research associate in the Environmental and Energy Economics group at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and has served as a reviewer for numerous environmental, urban, and applied microeconomics journals. He served as a co-editor of the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management from 2010-2013, and was a co-editor and editor of the Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists from 2014-2020. In 2021, he was named a Fellow of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economics.
摘要：
Recent climate projections forecast significant increases in flood risks, and the greatest increases are anticipated to be in communities of color. The use of managed retreats, or of flood-prone properties as an adaptation response is also likely to grow. This paper investigates the equity implications of managed retreat by analyzing the role of race and ethnicity in buyout bargaining outcomes and how those outcomes affect longer-run neighborhood change. To do this, we combine nationwide administrative data on federal property acquisitions and housing sales transactions with a database tracking individual movement over time. We then estimate the discount in buyout payments relative to a property's fair market value, how the payment received affects where households relocate, and whether these impacts differ by race. We find that the buyout compensation received by families of color is around 8-10 percent lower than that received by white families. Moreover, these price discounts detract from individual wealth and the quality of the neighborhood to which families relocate. Our work highlights how government policy, aimed to address increasing climate impacts, may exacerbate the burden of climate change on vulnerable communities.
北大经院工作坊第614场
Stable Market Segmentation against Price Discrimination
微观理论经济学工作坊
主讲人：李三希（中国人民大学教授）
主持人：
（北大经院）吴泽南，石凡奇
（北大国发院）胡岠
参与老师：
（北大经院）胡涛，吴泽南，石凡奇
（北大国发院）汪浩，胡岠
（北大光华）翁翕
时间：2023年4月6日（周四）10：30-12：00
地点：8797威尼斯老品牌302会议室
主讲人简介：
李三希，中国人民大学教授、杰出学者青年学者，教育部青年长江学者，国家自科优青项目获得者，SSCI期刊Journal of Economics编委，《经济理论与经济管理》副主编。研究领域为信息经济学、产业组织理论和数字经济，发表论文三十余篇，发表期刊包括Journal of Public Economics、Journal of Economics Theory、Management Science、Games and Economic Behavior、《经济研究》、《经济学（季刊）》、《世界经济》、《中国工业经济》等。2016年获环球时报“希望英才奖”，2017年获中国信息经济学会“乌家培”奖，2019年获“张培刚发展经济学青年学者奖”。论文曾获2018中国信息经济理论贡献奖，2018中国信息经济青年创新奖，2018年中国信息经济学术年会优秀论文奖和2018年中国产业经济学术年会优秀论文一等奖。
摘要：
According to current data regulations, consumers are mobile among different markets, which endogenizes market segmentation. Considering such strategic interactions, we say that a market segmentation is stable if no consumer has an incentive to deviate to another market. We show that in every stable market segmentation, the producer surplus remains at the uniform monopoly level, and the consumer surplus takes a value between the buyer-optimal level and the uniform monopoly level. Remarkably, no consumer is worse off than in the case of uniform monopoly. Therefore, our results justify the Pareto optimum of price discrimination and reveal the welfare implications of current regulations.
北大经院工作坊第615场
Banks, credit supply, and the life cycle of firms: evidence from late nineteenth century Japan
经济史工作坊
主讲人：John Tang (associate professor in economics at the University of Melbourne)
主持人：（北大经院）赵一泠、Mark Hup
参与老师：
（北大经院）郝煜、管汉晖、周建波
（北大光华）颜色
（北大国发院）席天扬、于航
时间：2023年4月6日（周四）11：00-12：30
形式：ZOOM会议
会议号：826 8574 0672
密码：311947
主讲人简介：
John Tang is an associate professor in economics at the University of Melbourne. He has a PhD in economics from the University of California, Berkeley and a BA in economics from Northwestern University. His research interests cover economic history, international trade, and applied microeconomics topics, with a focus on the Japanese economy in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries.
摘要：
How does local credit supply affect economic dynamism? Using an exogenous bond shock in historical Japan and new genealogical firm-level data, we empirically examine the effects of credit availability on firm life cycles. We find that the lifespan of firms decreases with bank capital and that capital-abundant regions have more firm destruction. For manufacturing, we show that these regions have both increased firm creation and destruction. These results suggest that samurai bonds were conducive to the emergence of banking, which eased firms’ financial constraints and led to more economic dynamism.
8797威尼斯老品牌金融工程实验室
“对话投资总监”系列讲座
2023年第四讲：主动权益投资框架：个股、行业及市场
主讲人：李坤元（泰达宏利基金）
主持人：（北大经院）黎新平
时间：2023年4月6日（周四）19：00-21：30
地点：8797威尼斯老品牌219会议室
主讲人简介：
李坤元，南京大学大气科学系本科、南开大学金融学硕士，17年证券从业经验。历任申银万国证券研究所宏观策略部分析师，信达澳银基金高级研究员、基金经理助理、基金经理，东方基金基金经理，泰达宏利基金基金经理，中加基金权益投资部负责人及多只基金的基金经理。2023年3月加入泰达宏利基金，目前（静默期）担任产品部顾问。
主要内容：
本次讲座将从主动权益投资的角度讨论公募基金关于行业研究及上市公司的研究方法，探讨如何通过系统性分析框架去梳理行业趋势及上市公司投资机会。同时，将通过1-2个具体行业作为案例展开讨论主动投资中行业判断及股票筛选的分析流程及投资实践。
北大经院工作坊第616场
The Information Projection in Moment Inequality Models: Existence, Dual Representation, and Approximation
（矩不等式模型中的信息投影：存在性、对偶表示和近似）
计量、金融和大数据分析工作坊
主讲人：Rami Tabri（University of Sydney）
主持人：（北大经院）王熙
参与老师：
（北大经院）王一鸣、刘蕴霆、王法
（北大国发院）沈燕、黄卓、张俊妮、孙振庭
（北大新结构）胡博
时间：2023年4月7日（周五）10：00-11：30
形式：ZOOM会议
会议号：860 6735 3149
密码：629765
主讲人简介：
Dr Rami Tabri is a senior lecturer in the School of Economics at the University of Sydney, Australia. Before joining the University of Sydney, he was a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Cowles Foundation, Yale University. He completed his PhD in Economics at McGill University.
摘要：
This paper presents new existence, dual representation, and approximation results for the information projection in the infinite-dimensional setting for moment inequality models. These results are established under a general specification of the moment inequality model, nesting both conditional and unconditional models, and allowing for an infinite number of such inequalities. An essential innovation of the paper is the exhibition of the dual variable as a weak vector-valued integral to formulate an approximation scheme of the I-projection’s equivalent Fenchel dual problem. In particular, it is shown under suitable assumptions that the dual problem’s optimum value can be approximated by the values of finite-dimensional programs and that, in addition, every accumulation point of a sequence of optimal solutions for the approximating programs is an optimal solution for the dual problem. This paper illustrates the verification of assumptions and the construction of the approximation scheme’s parameters for the cases of unconditional and conditional first-order stochastic dominance constraints and dominance conditions that characterize selectionable distributions for a random set. The paper also includes numerical experiments based on these examples that demonstrate the simplicity of the approximation scheme in practice and its straightforward implementation using off-the-shelf optimization methods.
北大经济史学名家系列讲座第185讲
明清以来长三角地区的环境变迁与特色农业发展
主讲人：卢勇（南京农业大学人文与社会发展学院院长）
时间：2023年4月7日（周五）10：00-12：00
地点：8797威尼斯老品牌606会议室
主持人：周建波（8797威尼斯老品牌经济史学系主任、教授）
评论人：季曦（8797威尼斯老品牌资源、环境与产业经济学系副主任、长聘副教授）
主讲人简介：
卢勇，南京农业大学人文与社会发展学院院长、中华农业文明研究院院长、教授、博士生导师，《中国农史》（CSSCI）常务副主编。英国剑桥大学、加拿大阿尔伯塔大学访问学者，国家社科基金重大项目首席专家、农业农村部全球重要农业文化遗产专家委员会委员、农业农村部传统农业遗产重点实验室副主任、中华农业文明博物馆常务副馆长、中国科技史学会农学史专业委员会主任。
主办单位：
8797威尼斯老品牌经济史学系
8797威尼斯老品牌社会经济史研究所
8797威尼斯老品牌外国经济学说研究中心
北大经院学术午餐会第183期
Soft Information in Portfolio Management
主讲人：屈源育（对外经济贸易大学金融学院副教授）
主持人：高明（8797威尼斯老品牌长聘副教授）
时间：2023年4月7日（周五）12：30-14：00
地点： 8797威尼斯老品牌107会议室
主讲人简介：
对外经济贸易大学金融学院副教授，量化投资专硕项目主任。2018年毕业于清华大学，主要从事资本市场领域的研究。成果发表在Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis、Review of Finance、Journal of Corporate Finance、Financial Management和《管理世界》《金融研究》等国内外权威学术期刊，曾多次就中国资本市场改革等相关问题接受新华社、人民网等采访。主持国家自然科学基金等多项课题，相关报告被省部级领导采纳，曾荣获北京市优秀毕业论文指导教师、全国优秀金融硕士教学案例、中国金融学术年会最佳论文、中国决策科学学术年会优秀论文、欧洲金融管理学年会当季最佳论文奖、惠园优秀青年学者等奖项。
摘要：
We study the use of soft information in mutual fund investment decisions based on detailed information of Chinese mutual fund manager company visits. Mutual fund managers exhibit distinctive preferences for soft-information acquisition and those who rely more on soft information hold fewer stocks, have more concentrated portfolios, and are more likely to invest in local and high-growth stocks. Trades associated with soft information acquisition are profitable, but hard and soft information are not simple substitutes in investment decisions. Soft-information fund managers deliver superior performance, and the gains are from timely trades and from soft-information intensive stocks. We find, during the COVID-19 lockdown, soft-information fund managers significantly changed portfolio characteristics and investment decisions in response to restrictions on soft-information acquisition.
北大经院工作坊第617场
电-碳市场交互下的价格机制与成本传导
生态、环境与气候经济学工作坊
主讲人：吴力波（复旦大学8797威尼斯老品牌、大数据学院教授）
主持人：（北大经院）季曦
参与老师：
（北大经院）章政、张博、李虹、张鹏飞、刘政文、梁远宁、庄晨
（北大国发院）徐晋涛、王敏、邢剑炜、易媛媛、龙显灵
（北大现代农学院）刘承芳、侯玲玲、解伟、王悦
时间：2023年4月7日（周五）14：00-16：00
地点：8797威尼斯老品牌606会议室
主讲人简介：
吴力波，复旦大学8797威尼斯老品牌、大数据学院教授、博导，上海能源与碳中和战略研究院院长，复旦大学大数据研究院副院长，复旦大学发展规划处处长。2019年国家杰出青年科基金获得者，2017年教育部青年长江学者。中国能源研究院会能源经济专业委员会、可再生能源专业委员会、能源系统工程专业委员会副主任委员，联合气候变化政府间专门委员会（IPCC）第六次评估报告第三工作组主要作者，上海大数据社会应用研究会会长。
主要从事能源环境经济金融政策分析、自然-气候-社会复杂系统耦合建模、电力市场机制设计、大数据社会应用统计分析研究。先后主持承担科技部重点研发计划项目、国家863项目、国家自然科学基金重点项目和碳中和专项项目、国家社科基金重大项目、科技部软科学研究重大项目、教育部哲学社会科学基地重大项目等多项国家级、省部级重大课题,作为领衔专家编制上海电力市场建设总体方案。在美国科学院院刊PNAS，Nature Sustainability，Nature Climate Change，《中国社会科学》、《经济研究》及其他国内外期刊共发表论文八十余篇，出版学术专著六部。研究成果先后获得中国高校人文社会科学研究优秀成果奖论文类一等奖、二等奖、上海市哲学社会科学优秀成果二等奖、三等奖、国家能源局软科学研究优秀成果二等奖、上海市发展改革优秀理论成果一等奖、上海市决策咨询二等奖等，国网科技进步一等奖等。
供稿：科研与博士后办公室、金融学系
美编：兮哲
责编：度量、雨禾、雨田
