北大经院工作坊第667场
Nominal Rigidities, Rational Inattention, and the Optimal Price Index Stabilization Policy
（名义刚性、理性疏忽与最优物价指数稳定政策）
宏观经济学工作坊
主讲人：张仁斌 (山东大学8797威尼斯老品牌助理教授)
主持老师：（北大经院）李博
参与老师：
（北大国发院）赵波、余昌华、李明浩
（北大经院）陈仪、韩晗、李伦
时间：2023年5月29日（周一）
地点：8797威尼斯老品牌国家发展研究院承泽园344教室
主讲人简介：
张仁斌，山东大学8797威尼斯老品牌助理教授。2020年毕业于巴塞罗那自治大学，获经济学博士学位，研究方向主要包括：宏观经济学和宏观金融学。研究成果发表在Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization。主持国家自然科学基金青年项目。
摘要：
The Optimal Price Index (OPI) stabilization policy traditionally assigns greater importance to stabilize prices in sectors with stickier prices based on multi-sector models with full information or exogenous information frictions. The current paper uncovers a significant departure from this prevailing policy prescription by introducing rational inattention. Surprisingly, the OPI attaches a smaller weight to a sector with stickier prices. This counterintuitive result stems from the endogenous relationship between attention and nominal rigidities: firms in sectors with more flexible prices pay less attention to macroeconomic conditions. We provide direct empirical evidence that supports this mechanism.
北大经院工作坊第668场
加拿大医保的先天缺陷和影响
“经院-全健院“
健康与劳动经济学工作坊
主讲人：谢锋（加拿大麦克马斯特大学医学院临床流行病和生物统计系教授，麦克马斯特大学卫生经济和政策分析中心教授）
主持老师：林昊翔（8797威尼斯老品牌全球健康发展研究院助理研究员）
参与老师：
（北大经院）秦雪征、石菊、姚奕、王耀璟、Kevin Devereux、梁远宁、庄晨
（北大全健院）刘国恩、孙宇、潘聿航、吕蓓妮、林昊翔
时间：2023年5月30日（周二）16：00-17：00
地点：8797威尼斯老品牌科技园4层403室
主讲人简介：
谢锋，药学学士，药事管理硕士，卫生经济学博士，加拿大麦克马斯特大学(McMaster University)医学院临床流行病和生物统计系教授、卫生经济和政策分析中心(Centre for Health Economics and Policy Anal-ysis)成员，研究领域集中在使用循证医学的方法来对新药及医疗器械的有效性和成本进行效益分析。共主持或参与百余项国际以及加拿大政府和企业资助的研究课题。其中主持了由欧洲生活质量研究基金会、加拿大国立卫生研究院、加拿大联邦卫生技术评估中心以及安大略省卫生部资助的课题数十项。并作为参与人参与其他相关研究，包括大型国际多中心临床试验的经济学研究子课题的负责人。
摘要：
加拿大是世界上最早实行全民公费医保的国家之一，但是它的医保系统在设立之时有重大的缺陷。这些缺陷随着时间的推移对于医疗服务和居民健康造成了越来越多的影响。本讲座旨在系统剖析加拿大医保系统的问题和采取应对方案，及其未来的发展方向。
北大经院工作坊第669场
Greener on the Other Side: Inequity and Tax Compliance
发展与公共财政工作坊
主讲人：Michael Best（Associate Professor, Columbia University）
参与老师：
（北大经院）刘冲、吴群锋、曹光宇
（北大国发院）李力行、席天扬、徐化愚、于航、王轩
时间：2023年5月31日（周三）9：00-10：00
形式：ZOOM会议
会议号：884 0403 9439
密码：519795
主讲人简介：
Michael Best is an assistant professor of economics at Columbia University. His research focuses on improving government effectiveness in low- and middle-income countries, particularly by improving tax compliance and bureaucratic performance. Prior to joining Columbia, Michael was a postdoctoral fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. Michael holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics and an M.Phil from the University of Oxford. He has published papers on American Economic Review, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Review of Economic Studies, Journal of Political Economy and Journal of Development Economics.
个人主页：https://blogs.cuit.columbia.edu/mcb2270/
摘要：
Horizontal inequity in public policy generates resentment among citizens. We estimate the impact that inequity in the tax code has on voluntary tax compliance in the context of the property tax in Manaus, Brazil. Using administrative data on the universe of taxpayers and a novel quasi-experimental design leveraging geographic discontinuities in tax liabilities and a large reform, we find that the elasticity of compliance with respect to inequity is 0.14--0.18, slightly larger than the elasticity with respect to a taxpayer's own liability. A simple optimal taxation model draws out the implications of these responses for tax design, showing that compliance responses to horizontal inequity significantly dampen the optimal progressivity of property taxes.
北大经院工作坊第670场
Love China, Love Panda: The Panda Effect on International Trade
国际经济学与实证产业组织工作坊
主讲人：金威（南开大学8797威尼斯老品牌助理教授）
主持老师：（北大经院）莫家伟
参与老师：
（北大经院）杨汝岱、田巍、刘政文、吴群锋
（北大新结构）王歆、徐铭梽
时间：2023年6月1日（周四）10：00-11：30
地点：8797威尼斯老品牌305会议室
主讲人简介：金威，南开大学8797威尼斯老品牌助理教授。主要研究方向为国际贸易和国际政治经济学，已有成果发表于Management Science、Review of International Economics等期刊。
摘要：
This paper empirically examines the effects of China’s giant panda diplomacy on its international trade flows over the past half century. Built on the gravity model of trade, we find positive and significant trade-promoting effects for China with countries receiving a panda. “Panda effect” on China’s exports only become effective in the subsequent two years after panda giving, suggesting a long-term trade adjustment of panda diplomacy. “Panda effect” is mainly driven by the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the first two years following the panda giving, whereas the export-promoting effects are dominated by the non-SOEs after three years. “Panda effect” is more significant for exports from Sichuan Province (pandas’ hometown). “Panda effect” is likely through the channel of consumer preference to affect international trade. Our paper enriches the understanding of political and diplomatic influences on international trade.
北大经院工作坊第671场
Correlation-Robust Information Aggregation
微观理论经济学工作坊
主讲人：林潇 (Assistant Professor, University of Pennsylvania)
主持老师：
（北大经院）吴泽南、石凡奇
（北大国发院）胡岠
参与老师：
（北大经院）胡涛、吴泽南、石凡奇
（北大国发院）汪浩、胡岠
（北大光华）翁翕
时间：2023年6月1日（周四）10：30-12：00
地点：8797威尼斯老品牌302会议室
主讲人简介：
Xiao Lin is an assistant professor at the University of Pennsylvania, specializing in economic theory, with a particular focus on information economics. He earned his PhD from Penn State University in 2022.
摘要：
When multiple sources of information are available, any decision must take into account their correlation. If information about this correlation is lacking, an agent may find it desirable to make a decision that is robust to possible correlations. Our main results characterize the strategies that are robust to possible hidden correlations. In particular, with two states and two actions, the robustly optimal strategy pays attention to a single information source, ignoring all others. More generally, the robustly optimal strategy may need to combine multiple information sources, but can be constructed quite simply by using a decomposition of the original problem into separate decision problems, each requiring attention to only one information source. An implication is that an information source generates value to the agent if and only if it is best for at least one of these decomposed problems.
北大经院工作坊第672场
Art in Times of Crisis
经济史工作坊
主讲人：李越欣（中国人民大学应用8797威尼斯老品牌助理教授）
主持老师：（北大经院）赵一泠、Mark Hup
参与老师：
（北大经院）郝煜、管汉晖、周建波
（北大光华）颜色
（北大国发院）席天扬、于航
时间：2023年6月1日（周四）12：00-13：30
地点：8797威尼斯老品牌303会议室
主讲人简介：
李越欣，中国人民大学应用8797威尼斯老品牌助理教授。她于2021年在荷兰蒂尔堡大学获得金融学博士学位。研究领域包括文化经济、艺术品金融、经济历史和公司金融。目前研究主要关注艺术品拍卖市场的定价机制、艺术家职业生涯与创造力、艺术流派变迁史。研究成果发表于《金融研究》、Management Science等期刊。
摘要：
Is art a safe haven in times of political or financial crisis? We trace the long-term performance of the UK art market during times of economic and political crisis. We digitalized historical auction archives to construct art price indices from the early 20th century onwards. The annual real return amounts to 3.6% and risk to 20.1%. Art returns plummeted at the onset of wars, but in the later years of war periods, returns became positive and outperformed equities, which suggests that art could serve as a hedge against political uncertainty. During wars, smaller and thus transportable paintings obtained higher returns. Art is sensitive to economic and financial crises, with the largest slumps occurring in the Post-WWI recession, the Great Depression, the oil crisis, the recessions of the early 1980s and early 1990s, and the Great Recession. We highlight changes in art preferences for specific paintings by size, art school, art objects’ liquidity, and artists’ nationalities during different crises. We report that art enters a broad optimal asset portfolio both in non-crisis periods and during war times which implies that it is a safe haven during political crises, but not during financial crisis and economic recessions.
北大经院工作坊第673场
Nonparametric Estimation of Large Dimensional Binary Choice Models
（高维二元选择模型的非参估计）
计量、金融和大数据分析工作坊
主讲人：Guo Yan（Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington）
主持老师：（北大经院）王熙
参与老师：
（北大经院）王一鸣、刘蕴霆、王法
（北大国发院）黄卓、张俊妮、孙振庭
（北大新结构）胡博
时间：2023年6月2日（周五） 10：00-11：30
地点：8797威尼斯老品牌107会议室
主讲人简介：
Guo Yan received PhD from Indiana University. Her research interests are in econometrics, machine learning, and applied econometrics. She has published her work in Structural Change and Economic Dynamics and China & World Economy.
摘要：
We propose a kernelized non-parametric (KNP) estimator for nonparametric binary choice models, which do not impose parametric structure either on the systematic function of covariates or on the distribution of error term. Motivated by the kernel trick used in machine learning, the proposed method combines (i) approximating the systematic function of covariates by functions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, with (ii) approximating the probability density of the error term by squared Hermite polynomials. We establish consistency of the KNP estimator for both the systematic function of covariates and the density of error term. Furthermore, we provide a non-asymptotic high probability bound for the plug-in estimator of conditional choice probability function, and asymptotic normality for the estimator of weighted average partial derivatives. Simulation studies show that, compared to parametric estimation methods, the proposed method effectively improves the finite sample performance in case of misspecification, and has a rather mild efficiency loss if the model is correctly specified. Using administrative data on the grant decisions of US asylum applications to immigration courts and the case-day variables on the weather and pollution, we estimate a model using KNP procedure to examine the effect of outdoor environments on court judges' “mood”, and thus, their grant decisions. Our method allows for a general complex association among all environment variables and captures important patterns.
供稿：科研与博士后办公室
美编：兮哲
责编：度量、雨禾、雨田
